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however, economic turmoil spread quietly. in this scene of beautiful wedding dresses and dresses, mark spitznagel, a well-known hedge fund manager in the financial industry, foresees a disturbing future: a u.s. economic recession is imminent. he believes that the federal reserve's first interest rate cut is a signal and also indicates that the economic soft landing will be overturned and economic recession will once again sweep the world.

spitznagel's views sparked thoughts about the economic outlook, and his predictions complement the federal reserve's easing cycle. however, this expectation is not entirely right or wrong. although u.s. inflation has declined steadily and the economy is relatively stable, many market participants are viewing the beginning of the fed's easing cycle as a favorable signal for a soft landing for the economy.

spitznagel believes that just cutting interest rates is just the tip of the iceberg. the u.s. economy is heavily in debt and is about to be hit hard by the heavy pressure on interest rates. he foresees a u.s. recession coming this year, which could trigger a "great crash" event similar to the global recession of 1929.

spitznagel has contributed valuable experience and theory to the financial world. his hedge fund, universa, is known for its response to "black swan" events, using credit default swaps, stock options and other derivatives to profit from severe market disorders. he is a former trader and protégé of nassim nicholas taleb, author of the 2007 best-selling book the black swan. his experience and theories have proven his foresight during the 2008 stock market crash, the 2015 flash crash, and the covid-19 outbreak in early 2020.

spitznagel's prediction is like a dark shadow hanging over the economy, making people wonder: how will people respond when economic turmoil occurs again?